Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4518
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
YX 4518 · ORD → RDU
departs 3:59 PM CT · arrives 7:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 20%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
3pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.