YX 4538 · LGA → PIT

departs 1:26 PM ET · arrives 3:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PIT (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4538 · LGA → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?