Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4545
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 4545 · ACK → PHL
departs 3:38 PM ET · arrives 5:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave ACK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ACK (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.