YX 4547 · ORD → IND

departs 6:46 AM CT · arrives 9:00 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IND?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ ORD is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into IND at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.19 in

IND (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4547 · ORD → IND

Odds over time

How late will it get to IND?