YX 4571 · LGA → PWM

departs 8:55 AM ET · arrives 10:26 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PWM?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at PWM that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Arrivals into PWM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PWM (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4571 · LGA → PWM

Odds over time

How late will it get to PWM?