YX 4574 · GSO → LGA

departs 5:43 PM ET · arrives 7:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

GSO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4574 · GSO → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?