YX 4574 · LGA → GSO

departs 3:14 PM ET · arrives 5:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to GSO?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into GSO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GSO

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GSO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4574 · LGA → GSO

Odds over time

How late will it get to GSO?