YX 4580 · CHS → LGA

departs 5:53 AM ET · arrives 8:07 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ CHS is prone to delays

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from CHS are usually not late

Weather at each end

CHS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4580 · CHS → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?