YX 4599 · PHL → STL

departs 8:12 PM ET · arrives 9:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,367 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,420 ft Visibility4.4 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4599 · PHL → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?