YX 4600 · ATL → LGA

departs 12:04 PM ET · arrives 2:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4600 · ATL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?