YX 4605 · TUL → LGA

departs 2:04 PM CT · arrives 6:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUL that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

TUL (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.64 in

LGA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4605 · TUL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?