YX 4607 · ATL → LGA

departs 4:56 PM ET · arrives 7:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4607 · ATL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?