YX 4608 · PHL → EYW

departs 10:41 AM ET · arrives 2:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EYW?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
40%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at EYW that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EYW (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip2.67 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4608 · PHL → EYW

Odds over time

How late will it get to EYW?