YX 4621 · ORF → LGA

departs 11:52 AM ET · arrives 1:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ ORF is prone to delays

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4621 · ORF → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?