YX 4622 · BNA → LGA

departs 10:34 AM CT · arrives 2:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4622 · BNA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?