Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4636
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 4636 · BOS → IND
departs 1:46 PM ET · arrives 4:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 11%
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Arrivals into IND at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.