Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4641
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
YX 4641 · BOS → CMH
departs 6:55 PM ET · arrives 9:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Wed 9/30 17%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 17%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Arrivals into CMH at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
CMH (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.