YX 4645 · ORD → STL

departs 3:15 PM CT · arrives 4:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

75% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
24%
15–30 min late
36%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
29%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↓ Other factors

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.88 in

STL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling567 ft Visibility3.33333 mi Precip0.56 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4645 · ORD → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?