Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4667
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
YX 4667 · LGA → CAE
departs 8:29 PM ET · arrives 10:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 47%
Mon 10/5 17%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at CAE more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±3 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at CAE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to CAE?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CAE
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CAE (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.