YX 4673 · LGA → RIC

departs 4:52 PM ET · arrives 6:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4673 · LGA → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?