Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4678
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 4678 · BOS → STL
departs 5:12 PM ET · arrives 7:21 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 64%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from BOS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 367 ft Visibility 2.66667 mi Precip 0.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.