YX 4685 · SDF → BOS

departs 4:52 PM ET · arrives 7:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4685 · SDF → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?