YX 4687 · BOS → JFK

departs 11:30 AM ET · arrives 12:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from BOS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4687 · BOS → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?