Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4698
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 4698 · ORD → RIC
departs 9:22 PM CT · arrives 12:39 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 19%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±6 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
9pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.86 in
RIC (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.