YX 4703 · ROC → BOS

departs 5:59 PM ET · arrives 7:46 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from ROC are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

BOS (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4703 · ROC → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?