YX 4709 · BOS → ROC

departs 4:19 PM ET · arrives 5:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

ROC (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4709 · BOS → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?