YX 4727 · STL → BOS

departs 6:01 PM CT · arrives 9:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 367 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from STL are often late

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling467 ft Visibility2.66667 mi Precip0.60 in

BOS (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4727 · STL → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?