YX 4737 · ORD → AVL

departs 3:06 PM CT · arrives 6:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AVL?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at AVL that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

AVL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4737 · ORD → AVL

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVL?