YX 4741 · ORD → PWM

departs 1:06 PM CT · arrives 4:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±1 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PWM?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 11% of the time recently

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ PWM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.74 in

PWM (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4741 · ORD → PWM

Odds over time

How late will it get to PWM?