YX 4751 · ORD → BUF

departs 8:46 AM CT · arrives 11:35 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −24 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at BUF that day

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

BUF (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4751 · ORD → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?