Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4759
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 4759 · ATL → ORD
departs 3:27 PM ET · arrives 4:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 37%
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 31%
Wed 10/7 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
46%
Arrive 1h+ late
49%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +21 pts in 24h
+21 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
34%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.88 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.