YX 4769 · ORD → DSM

departs 3:50 PM CT · arrives 5:18 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
38%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.92 in

DSM (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.42 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4769 · ORD → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?