YX 4775 · LGA → GRR

departs 10:18 AM ET · arrives 12:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to GRR?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at GRR that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from LGA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Arrivals into GRR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GRR (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.80 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4775 · LGA → GRR

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRR?