YX 4780 · ORD → GRR

departs 11:55 AM CT · arrives 2:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±1 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to GRR?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at GRR that day

↓ GRR usually runs smoothly

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.93 in

GRR (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.54 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4780 · ORD → GRR

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRR?