YX 4787 · LGA → GSP

departs 8:27 PM ET · arrives 10:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GSP?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GSP (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4787 · LGA → GSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to GSP?