YX 4790 · MSN → PHL

departs 1:26 PM CT · arrives 4:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at MSN that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ PHL is busy at that time

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

Weather at each end

MSN (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.26 in

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4790 · MSN → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?