YX 5605 · MEM → LGA

departs 4:59 PM CT · arrives 8:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

LGA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5605 · MEM → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?