YX 5612 · MKE → LGA

departs 5:42 PM CT · arrives 9:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MKE that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.09 in

LGA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5612 · MKE → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?