Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5616
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 5616 · BOS → IND
departs 5:45 PM ET · arrives 8:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 19%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into IND at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 1 mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.