YX 5712 · GRR → LGA

departs 11:39 AM ET · arrives 1:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at GRR that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ GRR usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

GRR (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.54 in

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5712 · GRR → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?