Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5716
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 5716 · BOS → LGA
departs 6:59 PM ET · arrives 8:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 33%
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 36%
Tue 10/6 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±5 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.8 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.