YX 5736 · BOS → LGA

departs 3:00 PM ET · arrives 4:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±5 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5736 · BOS → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?