Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5741
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 5741 · ORD → JFK
departs 6:00 AM CT · arrives 9:24 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 7%
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
6am departures from ORD are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.88 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.