Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5794 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

YX 5794 · PIT → LGA

departs 8:30 AM ET · arrives 10:00 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Thursdays in October are usually busier than average

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT

Weather at each end

PIT (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5794 · PIT → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?