Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5799
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 5799 · PWM → LGA
departs 6:25 AM ET · arrives 7:54 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 5%
Sat 10/3 4%
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PWM is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at PWM that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
PWM (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.