YX 5804 · BOS → LGA

departs 6:06 AM ET · arrives 7:30 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5804 · BOS → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?