YX 5809 · IAD → JFK

departs 12:20 PM ET · arrives 1:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ IAD is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5809 · IAD → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?