YX 5811 · PWM → LGA

departs 6:31 AM ET · arrives 8:12 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at PWM that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ PWM is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

PWM (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5811 · PWM → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?