YX 5819 · LGA → BOS

departs 4:00 PM ET · arrives 5:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5819 · LGA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?