YX 5821 · SYR → LGA

departs 12:08 PM ET · arrives 1:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 12pm departures from SYR are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

SYR (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5821 · SYR → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?